Ed Oswald: "Tornado Alley" has long been associated with tornadoes, with
May and June the busiest months.
However, Tornado Alley is shifting towards the southeast U.
S.
and toward population centers.
It's also starting earlier than ever.
What's behind this shift?
Hi, I'm Ed Oswald, host of the Weather Whys podcast.
We'll look into this in today's episode.
Thanks for joining us.
So what is Tornado Alley?
The term traditionally refers to an area roughly from South Dakota
southward to north central Texas.
However, tornadoes are becoming more frequent to the east and north.
Scientists documented this eastward shift.
A 2018 study found that tornado frequency generally decreased over The past four
decades across Tornado Alley, while increasing to the east across the Lower
Great Lakes, and into the Deep South.
Northern Illinois University researchers found that supercells, the origin
of most tornadoes, will become less frequent across Tornado Alley, and
more frequent across the eastern U.
S.
as the planet warms.
Others have noted the frequency of tornado outbreaks have shifted
dramatically eastward since 1950, and they increasingly occur in clusters,
or multiple tornadoes in the same area.
Research also suggests tornadoes are now more common in the late winter
and early spring, and less common in the late summer and early fall.
The biggest consequence is a significant increase in damage risk.
While people live in Tornado Alley, it's far less densely
populated than areas to the east.
People used to worry about a tornado in downtown Dallas.
These studies suggest downtown Memphis and Nashville are
more likely to see one instead
. Millions more Americans now live in an area where tornadoes are common.
Is climate change to blame?
Yes, but it's complicated.
Nationwide Doppler radar is a powerful tool for detecting tornadoes, even
when there's no one there to see them.
This could be responsible for part of the increase.
The Southeast U.
S.
is also far more populated as we mentioned, so tornadoes
are easier to detect.
Severe weather awareness is higher, and in our social media age, videos provide much
faster confirmation of tornadic activity.
But the increase is too significant to pin on these reasons alone.
We can likely pin some of the blame on climate change.
But is it natural or man made variability the cause?
One school of thought suggests the uptick is part of an overall increase
in severe weather across the U.
S.
due to climate change.
Models have been forecasting this for years.
However, others argue the variability may stem from bigger
cycles, such as differences in Pacific sea surface temperatures.
This could also be shifting Tornado Alley, but we don't have enough
data to make a clear judgment.
No matter what the reason, is, the data suggests that Tornado Alley is no
longer just limited to the Great Plains.
It's more important than ever to stay "weather aware."
When a tornado warning is issued, take it seriously.
Head to an interior portion of the building or your home.
If you hear the tornado approaching, get low and protect your head.
A weather radio is also invaluable during severe weather.
Our favorite is the Midland WR 120 NOAA Emergency Weather Alert Radio
. It can receive weather alerts directly from the National Weather Service using
SAME technology, which allows the weather radio to display the type of warning
even after the broadcast message ends.
That's the easiest way to keep yourself safe and is far more dependable than
the often incorrect weather app.
Tornadoes happen quickly, and getting the warning early gives you time to prepare.
We've included links in our show notes to this weather radio, as well as other
reviews, but we hope we've given you a better understanding of why tornadoes seem
to be more frequent and more destructive.
Weather Whys is a production of the Weather Station Experts
and the Weather Whys Company.
Today's episode was produced by Derek Oswald and myself from our studios
here in West Lawn, Pennsylvania.
If you'd like to learn more about Weather Whys, please visit our website
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That's all for today, thanks for listening, and
as always, stay weatherwise.